ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 10 2004 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION AND BANDING NEAR THE CENTER TO GENERATE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. ON THIS BASIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS RATHER THIN AT THIS TIME IT IS WELL ORGANIZED. SOME EASTERLY SHEAR IS APPARENT FROM CIRRUS MOTIONS...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRENGTHENING. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE DEPRESSION UP TO 80 KT IN 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THEIR INITIALIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION...AND OFFER A CONFUSING VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS TAKES THE DEPRESSION WEST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...STALLS IT...THEN DRIFTS IT NORTH TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. THE UKMET STARTS OFF WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AND THEN LOSES THE CYCLONE. THE NOGAPS...WITH PERHAPS THE POOREST INITIALIZATION...DRIFTS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD OVER 4 DAYS TO THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTH- CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE BASIC STEERING WILL BE PROVIDED BY THIS CURRENT AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE BAM MODELS. IT SHOWS A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SHARP DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 11.4N 94.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 12.2N 95.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 12.8N 97.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 13.0N 99.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 13.0N 101.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 13.0N 102.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 14/1800Z 13.5N 104.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 15/1800Z 14.0N 105.5W 75 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 10-Sep-2004 20:34:36 UTC