ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED SEP 15 2004 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0636Z SHOW THAT ISIS HAS FORMED A RAGGED BUT PERSISTENT EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THE EYE AND THE STRONGER INTENSITY ESTIMATES...ISIS IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/5. ISIS IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND WILL GO NOWHERE FAST DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO. EXCEPT FOR THE INCREASED INITIAL INTENSITY...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. ISIS WILL LINGER NEAR THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THE PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATER JUST TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING...ISIS SHOULD REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM OR BETTER INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. SHOULD THE CYCLONE DRIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER THAT COOLER WATER AND WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 17.9N 132.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 18.0N 132.3W 65 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 132.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 18.0N 132.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 18.0N 133.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 18.0N 134.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 135.0W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Sep-2004 14:55:14 UTC