ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED SEP 15 2004 ISIS IS STILL FAIRLY ORGANIZED AS DEPICTED BY INFRARED IMAGERY AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY STAYS AT 55 KTS BASED ON UNCHANGED DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN...BUT A GENERAL MOVEMENT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF 290/4 IS ESTIMATED. THE 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE STILL KEEPS ISIS IN THE SAME AREA OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DURING THE EARLY FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS FOLLOWED BY A WESTAWRD DRIFT. SINCE THE MEAN-LAYER FLOW IS QUITE WEAK...ISIS WILL LINGER IN THE SAME VICINITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH VERY SLOW MOTION OR WILL JUST REMAIN STATIONARY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A LEISURELY DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. SINCE ISIS WILL LINGER IN THE SAME AREA WHERE ABOVE 26 DEGREE SSTS PERSIST AND THE SHIPS SHEAR IS LOW...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ISIS TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 17.4N 131.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 17.6N 131.9W 60 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 17.6N 132.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 17.6N 132.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 17.6N 133.2W 50 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 134.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 17.5N 134.5W 45 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Sep-2004 09:06:12 UTC