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Tropical Storm ISIS (Text)

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004
 
INFRARED ANIMATION SHOWS THAT ISIS CONTINUES TO HAVE INTERMITTANT
BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  WIND SHEAR ALSO APPEARS TO
BE LIGHT.  THE STRATOCUMULUS INFLOW CONTINUES AND THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE IN A STEADY STATE AS FAR AS INTENSITY IS
CONCERNED...WARM SSTS...LIGHT SHEAR...WORKING AGAINST STABLE
ENTRAINED AIR. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB AND 35 KT FROM KGWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
AT 45 KT.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY ALSO STAYS AT 45 KTS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR 0600 UTC WAS STATIONARY...BUT FOR 0900 UTC
WILL BE 270/2 KT. ISIS HAS SLOWED DOWN AND WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO
DRIFT AROUND.  THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS A DRIFT TO THE
WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
REASONING.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 16.5N 129.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N 129.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 130.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.7N 131.2W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 16.9N 131.6W    45 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N 132.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 18.0N 132.3W    45 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 18.2N 132.8W    45 KT
 
 
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