ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE A DEVELOPING BAND OF CONVECTION WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS BANDING FEATURE CONTAINS A DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST ON THE SOUTH SIDE...AND CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 30KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE AND 35 KT SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TWO AGENCIES...ISIS HAS BEEN RE-UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KT IN 72 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL MODEL MAINTAINS ISIS AS ONLY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SINCE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALREADY SUGGESTING THE SHEAR TO BE WEAKENING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS AND TAKES ISIS TO 45 KT IN 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/9. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A RESULT OF A PERSISTENCE MID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO/BAJA. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HOURS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 17.4N 122.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 17.4N 123.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 17.4N 125.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 17.4N 127.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 17.5N 128.8W 45 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 17.5N 131.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 132.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 12-Sep-2004 02:44:38 UTC