ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004 THE TOPS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IF NEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS POP UP WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS...ISIS WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. ALL AGENCIES ARE REPORTING T NUMBERS NOW...WITH TAFB AT T1.0...SAB AT T1.5 AND KGWC AT T2.0. ANOTHER RECENT HIGH DENSITY QUIK SCAT PASS SHOWED A LOT OF 25 AND 30 KT WINDS AND A FEW POSSIBLE CONTAMINATED 35 AND 40 KT WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT. SHIPS NOW WANTS TO MAKE ISIS A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 12 HOURS. ALSO...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...DUE WEST...KEEPS THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO WARM SSTS AND IN VERY LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR 72 HOURS. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ISIS CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF OUT TO 120 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW LARGELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9. ISIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BUT HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH AND RUNS DUE WEST. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 17.4N 119.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 17.4N 120.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 17.4N 122.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 17.4N 124.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 17.4N 126.9W 45 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 17.4N 131.2W 45 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.4N 135.6W 45 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 17.4N 139.7W 45 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 11-Sep-2004 08:44:38 UTC