ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 10 2004 LO AND BEHOLD...AFTER REMAINING CONVECTION FREE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ISIS REALIZED THAT SHE WAS STILL OVER WARM SSTS AND DECREASING VERTICAL SHEER....AND HAS SENT UP A NICE CONVECTIVE BOMB JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. WITHOUT THE DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE DAY TSAB HAS NOT GIVEN THE SYSTEM A T NUMBER. SAB AND KGWC BOTH GAVE THE SYSTEM A T1.5. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST QUICK SCAT WHICH SHOWED 30 KTS. AGAIN...THE SHIPS MODEL WANTS TO RE-INTENSIFY ISIS AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE GFDL FORECAST KEEPS THE SYSTEM INVARIANT OUT TO 120 HRS. WITH THE RENEWED CONVECTION...I AM GOING TO FOLLOW THE GFDL SOLUTION...AND SEE IF THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE NEAR 72 HOURS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW THERE AFTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9. ISIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WESTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK VERY CLOSELY. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 17.5N 118.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 17.6N 120.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 17.9N 122.3W 30 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 18.2N 124.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 18.4N 126.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 18.6N 131.2W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 15/0000Z 18.8N 136.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 11-Sep-2004 02:54:49 UTC