ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN SEP 05 2004 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 2.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB. RECENT QUIKSCAT AND SSMI DATA SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS ABOUT 30 KT. THE SYSTEM IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 22 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG. THEREFORE...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AND THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL DISSPATE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS AND IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 25.3N 119.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 26.0N 119.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 06/0600Z 26.6N 121.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 06/1800Z 26.8N 122.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 07/0600Z 26.8N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 05-Sep-2004 08:44:38 UTC