ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT SEP 04 2004 HOWARD CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR...EXPOSING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ANY CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A GENEROUS 35 KT BASED ON AN EARLIER 1500 UTC SSMI PASS THAT SHOWED NO WINDS ABOVE 30 KT AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES NEAR 45 KT. THE STORM IS MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 23C WITH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THESE FACTORS SHOULD COMBINE TO WEAKEN HOWARD RAPIDLY WITH DISSIPATION INTO A REMNANT LOW LIKELY TOMORROW. THE STORM REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A NORTHWESTERLY MOTION AROUND 8 KT. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION BENDING TO THE LEFT WITH TIME AS HOWARD WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONU. MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HOWARD IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE DESERT REGIONS. FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 24.8N 118.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 25.4N 119.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 06/0000Z 25.9N 120.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 06/1200Z 26.0N 121.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 07/0000Z 26.0N 122.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 05-Sep-2004 02:33:58 UTC