ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT SEP 04 2004 EARLIER AMSU-B AND TRMM MICROWAVE PASSES AT 04/1029Z AND 04/1200Z RESPECTIVELY DEPICTED THAT HOWARD HAD DECOUPLED SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. BASED ON THESE FIXES...THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINED UNCHANGED... HOWEVER...FIX POSITIONS WHERE PLACED IN THE CONVECTION. BASED SOLEY ON THE EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60 KT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT HOWARD HAS MOVED OVER A COOL TONGUE OF SEAS SURFACE TEMPS LESS THAN 24 DEGREES CELSIUS. WATER VAPOR REVEALS UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AS WELL...FURTHER JUSTIFYING A WEAKENING TREND. SHIPS DISSIPATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS...AND THE GFDL MODEL DECREASES THE INTENSITY TO 25 KT IN 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST INTENSITY CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING BY DAY 5. INITIAL MOTION IS 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NOW DEPICT A NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS. THE NOGAPS...WHICH MAINTAINS A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH DAY 4...IS THE OUTLIER WITH A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AGREES WITH THE GUNA AND CONU. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 23.7N 117.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 24.7N 118.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 25.6N 118.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 26.3N 119.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 06/1200Z 26.5N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 07/1200Z 26.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/1200Z 26.5N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 04-Sep-2004 14:54:38 UTC