ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 03 2004 SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE NOW COOLED...THUS...SLOWING THE WEAKENING PROCESS. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KTS FOR TAFB AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL AND 115 KTS FOR SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 105 KTS. THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS A WEAKENING TREND AS WELL AS SHIPS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS WITH SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/7 KT. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS MUCH THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SITUATED NORTH OF HOWARD IS BREAKING DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER CALIFORNIA. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE UKMET...NOW AGREE ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS...OF COURSE...SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LATER PERIOD FORECAST POSITIONS AMONG THE MODELS. FOR THAT REASON THE CONCENSUS IS RELIED ON HEAVILY. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 19.4N 115.2W 105 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 20.1N 116.0W 95 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 21.3N 116.9W 85 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 22.5N 117.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 23.7N 118.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 25.7N 118.7W 50 KT 96HR VT 07/0600Z 27.0N 119.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 08/0600Z 28.0N 119.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 03-Sep-2004 08:34:09 UTC