ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU SEP 02 2004 SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 127 KT FROM TAFB...115 KT FROM SAB AND 90 KT AFWA. HOWEVER...AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THE T NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN. I THINK THAT HOWARD PEAKED AT ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS AGO AND WILL NOW BEGIN OR CONTINUE A WEAKENING TREND. THE TREND WILL START SLOWLY BECAUSE SEVERAL RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE 26 DEGREE SST CONTOUR IS A LITTLE MORE TO THE NW OF THE NCEP GLOBAL SST ANALYSIS. SHIPS GUIDANCE WEAKENS HOWARD RAPIDLY BUT USES THE NCEP GLOBAL SSTS FOR ITS SST POTENTIAL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS BUT DOES NOT WEAKEN IT AS FAST IN THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS. INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT 310 AT 8 KT. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SITUATED NORTH OF HOWARD IS BREAKING DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER CALIFORNIA. THE U.K. MET CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING A RECURVE SCENARIO DUE TO THIS TROUGH. THE FORECAST IS BASED OFF OF THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE WIND RADII AND 12 FOOT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED UPON SHIP OBSERVATIONS...IN PARTICULAR SHIP A8CI9. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 19.1N 114.8W 115 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 19.8N 115.8W 110 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 20.9N 116.8W 100 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 22.2N 117.6W 90 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 23.5N 118.1W 70 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 25.7N 118.7W 50 KT 96HR VT 07/0000Z 27.0N 119.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 08/0000Z 28.0N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 03-Sep-2004 02:34:27 UTC