ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED SEP 01 2004 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM TAFB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT AND THE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOT AS SYMMETRIC AS EARLIER...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS STRONG IN ALL QUADRANTS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PROHIBITIVE AND THE SSTS WILL BE WARM FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...HOWARD WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. THE FORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 295/8. HOWARD IS BUMPING UP AGAINST A MID-LEVEL CENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. THERE IS WIDE DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE UKMET RECURVING HOWARD SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFS WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND CONSEQUENTLY DOES NOT RESPOND SO MUCH TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. TAKING A MIDDLE ROUTE IS THE GFDL WHICH BENDS THE TRACK TO THE NORTH AFTER 48 HOURS. THE RESPONSE OF THE CYCLONE AT THAT TIME IS LIKELY TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IT CAN MAINTAIN AS SSTS DECREASE. BASED ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH MAINTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH 72 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE EXTREME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 17.0N 112.4W 80 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 17.6N 113.7W 90 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 18.3N 115.1W 95 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W 95 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 20.0N 117.5W 90 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 22.0N 118.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 24.0N 120.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 07/0000Z 26.0N 121.0W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 02-Sep-2004 02:33:57 UTC