ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED SEP 01 2004 THE ORGANIZATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS IMPROVED...WITH A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CDO HAVING DEVELOPED AND THE EYE BECOMING APPARENT ON THE VISIBLE IMAGES. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE AT 4.5 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. HOWARD SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ABOUT 36-48 HOURS SO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWARD WILL BE CROSSING THE 26 DEG SST ISOTHERM IN AROUND 48 HOURS...AND THEREFORE WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE AT THAT TIME. IF HOWARD MOVES FASTER THAN FORECAST...IT WOULD REACH THE COOLER WATERS SOONER...AND THEREFORE WEAKEN SOONER. IN 1-2 DAYS...THE MID-LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTO CALIFORNIA. THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL RESPONDS TO THIS BY RECURVING HOWARD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA WITHIN THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER NONE OF THE OTHER MULTI-LEVEL DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT...ASIDE FROM A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION...HOWARD WILL NOT RESPOND SIGNIFICANTLY TO THIS TROUGH. EARLIER INFRARED-ONLY FIXES WERE A LITTLE TOO FAR TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SO SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TRACK. THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT A LITTLE SLOWER. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 16.8N 112.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 17.6N 113.6W 90 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 18.5N 115.2W 95 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.3N 116.6W 95 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.0N 117.7W 90 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 119.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 24.5N 122.5W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 01-Sep-2004 20:33:48 UTC