ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE AUG 31 2004 VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HOWARD IS BECOMING A HEALTHY TROPICAL STORM WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES AND OUTFLOW ALOFT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS NOW GIVE A T3.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA WHICH CORRESPOND TO 55 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND HOWARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND TO MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...COOLER WATERS MAY CAUSE HOWARD TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN SHOWN HERE. INITIAL MOTION IS WNW AT 11 KT. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA WHICH HAS BEEN PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING HOWARD. AS SEEN EARLIER TODAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY AFTER 36 HOURS WITH THE CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS FORECASTING HOWARD ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...AND THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOWING A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF GUNA AND CONU. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 14.8N 108.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 15.7N 110.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 16.6N 112.3W 70 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 17.5N 114.4W 75 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 18.3N 116.3W 75 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 21.0N 121.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 05/1800Z 23.0N 123.0W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Aug-2004 20:43:50 UTC