ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN AUG 29 2004 LAST VISIBLE IMAGES BEFORE SUNSET SHOWED A COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED 45 NM TO THE EAST OF A WEAKENING BURST OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE IN THE 45-55 KT RANGE...DATA T NUMBERS FROM ALL THE SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE DOWN TO 35 KT AND THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THEREAFTER...THE DISSIPATING CIRCULATION WILL BE STEERED ON AN ACCELERATING WESTWARD TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. THE SIMPLER BAM MODELS...NHC91 AND LBAR KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST...WHICH IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. GEORGETTE IS CURRENTLY OVER WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 24C-25C AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER WATER BETWEEN 23-24C THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST WITH DISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS AND A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 96 HOURS. THIS IS FASTER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER COBB/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 19.9N 123.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 20.2N 124.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 31/0000Z 20.4N 126.2W 25 KT 36HR VT 31/1200Z 20.7N 128.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 01/0000Z 21.0N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 02/0000Z 21.0N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 03/0000Z 21.0N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 30-Aug-2004 02:33:40 UTC