ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT AUG 28 2004 ANOTHER BURST OF COLD CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -85C HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF GEORGETTE. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS THE STORM HAS ENDURED MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR. CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 55 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES. INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO SINCE THE STORM IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...GEORGETTE WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT IT WILL BE STEERED TO THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS AND CONY ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND MOVES GEORGETTE DUE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS. THE UKMET...NHC91 AND THE BAM MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF WEAKENING EXPECTED. GEORGETTE WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM JUST AFTER 12 HOURS WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED IN THE 24-36 HOUR TIMEFRAME. AFTER 36 HOURS THE SYSTEM CROSSES 24C WATERS AND THE WEAKENING SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST BY 72 HOURS...AND A REMNANT LOW ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS THE SYSTEM SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE GFDL AS THE FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF THE GFDL OVER COOLER WATERS. FORECASTER COBB/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 19.1N 118.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 19.3N 120.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.7N 122.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 20.0N 123.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 31/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 01/0000Z 20.5N 130.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 02/0000Z 20.5N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/0000Z 20.6N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 29-Aug-2004 02:33:53 UTC