ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT AUG 28 2004 THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF GEORGETTE LOOKED QUITE RAGGED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT DEEP THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE REDEVELOPED OVER AND TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85C. THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR WITH A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE A CONSENSUS 3.0 AND GIVEN THE RECENT FLARE UP OF CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/10. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DOES SLOW GEORGETTE DOWN FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND JOG IT A LITTLE TO THE NORTH. THIS IS POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 135W...WHICH SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED TIGHTLY DURING THE FIRST 48-72 HOURS BUT DIVERGES THEREAFTER PRIMARILY DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS IN FORECAST INTENSITY. THE GFS AND GFDL ARE FASTEST AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE OTHER MODELS...AND THIS SEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE CIRCULATION BECOMES SHALLOWER OVER THE COLDER WATERS TO THE WEST AND IS STEERED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG 30N/31N. THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. GEORGETTE WILL CROSS OVER THE 26C ISOTHERM AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS...AT WHICH POINT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HOURS. SINCE THE GFDL KEEPS THE STORM ON A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...IT BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP TO 60 KT IN 36 HOURS BUT THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 18.8N 117.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 18.9N 118.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 19.1N 120.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 19.4N 122.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 19.8N 124.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 31/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 02/1200Z 20.0N 136.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 28-Aug-2004 14:54:22 UTC