ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI AUG 27 2004 THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS ALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED DESPITE A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN NOW INDICATE 20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF GEORGETTE. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. ACTUAL DATA T NUMBERS WERE 0.5 TO 1.0 T NUMBERS LOWER...MORE INDICATIVE OF A WEAKER SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT BASED ON THIS AND THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. GEORGETTE REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR 135W IN THE 96-120 HR TIMEFRAME WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON THE RIDGE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THUS THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE GEORGETTE TO TURN WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THESE LINES AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA AND CONU ENSEMBLES. IN ADDITION THE FORECAST KEEPS THE DUE WESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST ON THE BASIS THAT A WEAKENING GEORGETTE WILL BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GEORGETTE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY STATE THROUGH 24-36 HOURS THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES COOLER WATER. THIS IS ALONG THE LINES OF SHIPS AND WEAKER THAN THE GFDL WHICH INITIALIZES WITH A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM. IT IS INTERESTING THAT PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECASTS FROM SHIPS UNDERESTIMATED THE SHEAR THAT IS OCCURRING TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GEORGETTE COULD DISSIPATE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER COBB/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 18.8N 115.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 19.2N 117.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 19.5N 119.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 19.9N 121.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 20.0N 123.8W 40 KT 72HR VT 31/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 01/0000Z 20.0N 132.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 02/0000Z 20.0N 136.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 28-Aug-2004 02:33:47 UTC