ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI AUG 27 2004 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GEORGETTE IS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CONTINUE TO INDICATE 15-20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/15. OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. GEORGETTE REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 96 HR. AFTER THAT...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR 135W MAY WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT. THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE GEORGETTE TO TURN WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 96 HR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. AFTER 96 HR...THE NOGAPS AND THE BAM MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A WESTWARD MOTION ON THE BASIS THAT A WEAKENING GEORGETTE WILL BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE WINDOW FOR GEORGETTE TO STRENGTHEN IS STARTING TO CLOSE...AS THE STORM IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN THIS MORNING AND IT IS RUNNING OUT OF WARM WATER. BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL FORECAST 12-24 HR MORE STRENGTHENING...BUT BOTH NOW KEEP GEORGETTE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG THESE LINES IN CASE ONE LAST BIG CONVECTIVE BURST OCCURS TONIGHT. THE STORM SHOULD CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 24 HR AND PASS OVER WATER COLDER THAN 24C AFTER 96 HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GEORGETTE COULD DISSIPATE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 18.6N 113.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.3N 115.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 19.8N 118.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 20.1N 120.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 20.3N 122.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 30/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 31/1800Z 20.5N 130.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 01/1800Z 20.5N 134.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 27-Aug-2004 20:43:35 UTC