ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI AUG 27 2004 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION AND AN EARLIER 27/0411Z SSMI PASS DEPICT THAT GEORGETTE HAS TUCKED IN FURTHER BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. APPARENTLY, THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS LETTING UP. CLOUDS TOPS REMAIN COLD AND THE SSMI IMAGE REVEALED A WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SSMI PASS AND A RECENT TRMM PASS HAVE ALSO HELPED TO INCREASE INITIAL POSITION CONFIDENCE AND MOTION. FORWARD SPEED IS STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARED TO BE MOVING NEAR 13 KT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...45 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 FROM AFWA. BASED ON AN AGENCY CONSENSUS...IMPROVED BANDING ORGANIZATION...AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS SHIFTED UNDER THE CONVECTION...INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. THE WIND RADII HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 27/0130Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE RECENT CHANGE IN STRUCTURE. INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN NORTH OF GEORGETTE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE GEORGETTE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE MAINTAINING STRENGTH THROUGH DAY 4...CREATING A WESTWARD STEERING MOTION. NOGAPS...THE CANADIAN...AND THE GFS DIG A MID LATITUDE TROUGH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON DAY 5 WHILE THE UKMET IS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND SHOWS LESS TROUGH AMPLITUDE. BASED ON THE EARLIER TRMM AND SSMI PASSES...THE INITIAL POSITION AND FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 NM NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED PRIMARILY OFF OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. SINCE ALL INDICATIONS NOW POINT TO A DECREASE IN EASTERLY SHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INCREASE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. THE GFDL RUN ACTUALLY INCREASES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO 74 KT AT THE SAME PERIOD. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME...GEORGETTE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN...DROPPING BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY BY THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. THIS TREND IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS...BUT CLOSER TO THE GFDL BEYOND DAY 4. FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 17.6N 110.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 18.4N 112.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 19.3N 115.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 19.8N 117.4W 70 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 20.0N 119.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 30/0600Z 20.0N 124.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 31/0600Z 20.0N 128.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 01/0600Z 20.0N 132.5W 25 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 27-Aug-2004 08:43:37 UTC