Tropical Storm GEORGETTE

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TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 27 2004
 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION AND AN EARLIER 27/0411Z SSMI
PASS DEPICT THAT GEORGETTE HAS TUCKED IN FURTHER BENEATH THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. APPARENTLY, THE EASTERLY SHEAR
IS LETTING UP. CLOUDS TOPS REMAIN COLD AND THE SSMI IMAGE
REVEALED A WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SSMI PASS AND A RECENT TRMM PASS HAVE
ALSO HELPED TO INCREASE INITIAL POSITION CONFIDENCE AND MOTION.
FORWARD SPEED IS STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST
3 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARED TO BE MOVING NEAR 13 KT.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...45 KT FROM
SAB...AND 35 FROM AFWA. BASED ON AN AGENCY CONSENSUS...IMPROVED
BANDING ORGANIZATION...AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS SHIFTED UNDER THE CONVECTION...INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 50 KT. THE WIND RADII HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON
A 27/0130Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE RECENT CHANGE IN STRUCTURE.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MID/UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN NORTH OF GEORGETTE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE GEORGETTE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. LARGE SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE RIDGE MAINTAINING STRENGTH THROUGH DAY 4...CREATING A
WESTWARD STEERING MOTION. NOGAPS...THE CANADIAN...AND THE GFS DIG A
MID LATITUDE TROUGH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON DAY 5 WHILE THE UKMET
IS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND SHOWS LESS TROUGH AMPLITUDE. BASED
ON THE EARLIER TRMM AND SSMI PASSES...THE INITIAL POSITION AND
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 NM NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
IS BASED PRIMARILY OFF OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
 
SINCE ALL INDICATIONS NOW POINT TO A DECREASE IN EASTERLY
SHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INCREASE TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. THE GFDL RUN ACTUALLY INCREASES THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO 74 KT AT THE SAME PERIOD. BEYOND THAT TIME
FRAME...GEORGETTE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN...DROPPING BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY BY THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.
THIS TREND IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS...BUT CLOSER TO THE
GFDL BEYOND DAY 4.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0900Z 17.6N 110.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     27/1800Z 18.4N 112.5W    60 KT
 24HR VT     28/0600Z 19.3N 115.0W    70 KT
 36HR VT     28/1800Z 19.8N 117.4W    70 KT
 48HR VT     29/0600Z 20.0N 119.8W    65 KT
 72HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N 124.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     31/0600Z 20.0N 128.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     01/0600Z 20.0N 132.5W    25 KT
 
 
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