ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2004 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH A 25-KT SHIP REPORT AT 12Z...INDICATE THE LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 305 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT FROM TAFB AND IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES SINCE THE 12Z SATELLITE FIX. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 290/10. THE CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING NEAR THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BURSTS THE PAST 12 HOURS...SO ASCERTAINING BOTH CENTER PLACEMENT AND FORWARD MOTION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS HAS BEEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AWAY FROM MEXICO...THE PAST 24 HOURS. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES MUCH COLDER WATER. AFTER THAT...SIGNIFICANTLY AND A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE MID-AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BE DRIVEN MORE WESTWARD BY THE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS. TD-10E HAS A LARGER THAN AVERAGE CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY PRECLUDE ANY RAPID DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION ALREADY HAS GOOD BANDING FEATURES AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE IT MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS BY ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER COLD SSTS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 14.4N 106.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 15.1N 108.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 16.1N 110.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 17.0N 112.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 17.5N 115.1W 60 KT 72HR VT 29/1200Z 18.2N 120.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 30/1200Z 18.5N 125.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 31/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W 25 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 26-Aug-2004 14:23:24 UTC