ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2004 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED...WITH ONLY WEAK CONVECTION AND CIRRUS DEBRIS CURRENTLY REMAINING NORTH OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF 1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AS A 25 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER SST LESS THAN 25 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND UNDER MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. AS A RESULT... DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITS REMNANT LOW...DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. FORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 19.5N 127.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 19.7N 128.8W 25 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 19.8N 130.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 27/0000Z 19.9N 133.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 27/1200Z 20.0N 135.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/1200Z 20.0N 140.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/1200Z 20.0N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.0N 147.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Aug-2004 14:53:42 UTC