ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2004 SATELLITE ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS WARMING TOPS OF A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION JUST WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. DIURNAL OR TEMPORARY BURSTS OF CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY STRENGTHENING...AND SHOULD CAUSE DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SHIPS...GFS...AND UKMET SUGGEST. INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO...WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT AT 7 KT...FURTHER INCREASING TO 10 KT IN 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 24 HOURS WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. ROBERTS/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 19.3N 126.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 19.5N 127.7W 25 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 19.6N 129.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 26/1800Z 19.6N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 27/0600Z 19.6N 134.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/0600Z 19.5N 143.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/0600Z 19.5N 146.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Aug-2004 08:43:15 UTC