ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH IS BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHEAR TENDENCY ANALYSES BY THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR 20 KT...AND INCREASING. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS UNLIKELY AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... 290/6. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC TRADEWIND FLOW. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 18.9N 125.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 19.0N 127.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 19.0N 131.5W 25 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 19.0N 134.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/0000Z 19.0N 143.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/0000Z 19.0N 146.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Aug-2004 02:33:27 UTC