ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 8 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004 THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUED TO BE OFFSET FROM THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO ITS NORTH AS INDICATED BY CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES. AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 ISSUED BY SAB SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING AT 30 KNOTS. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE REASONABLY SLOW MOVING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 315/03...JUST SOUTH OF A COL IN THE MID- LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE DEPRESSION ON A NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH...LIMITING ITS NORTHWARD MOTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE TRACK THAN THE NHC MODEL SUITE. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND STEER THE SYSTEM ON A WESTERLY TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS. THE SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE FIRST 24 HOURS UNDER WEAK SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND 36 HOURS. THIS INCREASED SHEAR COUPLED WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. CLARK FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 18.7N 124.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 19.1N 124.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 19.4N 125.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 19.5N 127.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 19.5N 128.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 19.6N 132.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 19.6N 135.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/1200Z 19.6N 139.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Aug-2004 15:03:22 UTC