| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane FRANK (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2004
 
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS ABSENT...WITH ONLY MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER...AND THE
CIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN.  DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE DOWN
TO 2.0 AND CI NUMBERS DOWN TO 3.0.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE VALUES AND IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. 
FRANK IS LOCATED OVER SST NEAR 24 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND CONTINUED
STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION WITHIN 36 HOURS OR
LESS...WHICH IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
 
FRANK CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 7
KNOTS.  THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  AS A RESULT...A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OF THE
DEPRESSION AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH MOST
DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 22.2N 118.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 22.3N 119.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 22.4N 120.9W    25 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 22.5N 122.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 22.5N 124.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 22.5N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 22.5N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN