ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2004 FRANK HAS LOST NEARLY ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION...AND WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS CONFINED TO AN AREA JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 KT TO 65 KT...BUT T NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 3.0 WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 45 KT. AS A COMPROMISE...PERHAPS A GENEROUS ONE GIVEN THE LOSS OF CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50 KT. FRANK IS LOCATED OVER SST NEAR 24 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. TRACKING THE MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATES A MOTION JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF FRANK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT...WHICH IS ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 22.0N 117.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 22.2N 118.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 22.3N 120.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 22.4N 121.7W 25 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 22.5N 123.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 28/1200Z 22.5N 126.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/1200Z 22.5N 129.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/1200Z 22.5N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Aug-2004 14:43:27 UTC