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Hurricane FRANK (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2004
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY T-NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...35 KT FROM AFWA AND 54 KT FROM AN AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT. CORE CONVECTION
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WITH REMAINING WEAK BANDING CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTED THAT DEEP
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HAS COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED. TROPICAL STORM FRANK SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST WEAKENING TO AN
OPEN TROUGH BY THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT. A TURN TO
THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS IS EXPECTED. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THIS FORECAST MOTION AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A LIFTING TROUGH OVER BAJA.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT THE TROUGH HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE RIDGE SHOULD
PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND AGREES WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 22.1N 116.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 22.8N 119.4W    30 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 22.9N 120.9W    25 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 23.0N 122.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 23.0N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 23.0N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/0600Z 23.0N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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