ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004 IR IMAGES SHOW THAT FRANK HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE. THIS FEATURE WAS BETTER DEFINED ON EARLIER TRIMM DATA...BUT IT HAS BECOME VERY POORLY DEFINED ON THE LATEST IR IMAGES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. HOWEVER...MOST LIKELY...THIS WILL BE THE PEAK INTENSITY OF FRANK SINCE THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR LESS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS WHICH BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY BEYOND 12 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND FRANK CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. IN THE SHORT TERM...A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS ERODING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORCING FRANK TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEAKENING RIDGE. THEREAFTER...A NEW RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FORCING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE WESTWARD. IN ADDITION...SINCE FRANK IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... IT WILL PROBABLY BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS WHICH UNANIMOUSLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE RATHER FAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL OVER-EMPHASIZING THE SIZE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E IN THE ANALYSIS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 20.0N 114.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 21.0N 115.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 22.0N 117.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 22.5N 118.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 23.0N 120.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 27/0600Z 23.0N 123.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 28/0600Z 23.0N 126.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 29/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Aug-2004 08:33:20 UTC