Tropical Storm FRANK

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TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 23 2004
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING BASED ON CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. A
23/0927Z AMSU OVERPASS INDICATED A TIGHT INNER-CORE OF CONVECTION
WITH A LONG CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPPED MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND
THE CENTER...THAT WOULD YIELD A DATA T-NUMBER OF AT LEAST T2.5...OR
35 KT. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM TAFB. THEREFORE...THE
DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FRANK. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.  THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. THE DEEP BAM AND LBAR MODELS RECURVE
FRANK ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 60H AND INTO THE U.S.
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY 96H...WHILE THE GFDL...GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET
MODELS HAVE THE CYCLONE LIMPING ALONG SLOWLY WESTWARD AS ALMOST A
NON-ENTITY. THIS IS BECAUSE THOSE MODELS BARELY SHOW A CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK DUE TO THEIR KEYING MORE ON THE WEAKER
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 700 NMI DUE WEST OF FRANK. THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO
EXTREMES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES FRANK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
PERSISTENCE...CLIPER...THE MEDIUM BAM AND THE 23/00Z ECMWF MODELS
...AND SOME POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE
LOCATED TO THE WEST. AFTER THAT...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER MUCH
COLDER WATER WITH SSTS LESS THAN 24C...AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE FROM THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND BE FORCED MORE WESTWARD BY
THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF FRANK.

FRANK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 26C AND HIGHER SSTS FOR AT LEAST
36-48 HOURS. SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED
AND IS IMPROVING...THEN STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR...WITH
STEADY WEAKENING AFTER THAT AS FRANK MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 17.6N 111.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.3N 112.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.1N 114.1W    55 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 20.2N 115.8W    60 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 21.1N 117.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 22.2N 121.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 22.5N 123.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     28/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W    25 KT
 
 
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