ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2004 LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT ESTELLE IS SHOWING GOOD OVERALL STRUCTURE...WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN BANDS NEAR THE CENTER AND GOOD OUTFLOW. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SLOW INTENSIFICATION DESPITE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP TO 50 KT IN 48 HOURS WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS...THEN REMAIN STEADY THEREAFTER AS MODEST SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER ESTELLE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF ESTELLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN THE LONG RANGE...THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SHARPER TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 14.1N 137.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 14.8N 139.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 15.5N 141.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 16.3N 142.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 17.0N 144.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 17.0N 148.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 17.0N 151.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 25/1200Z 16.5N 155.0W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 20-Aug-2004 14:53:26 UTC