ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE AUG 03 2004 THERE IS NOT A LOT OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TD SIX-E. THIS IS SOMEWHAT REFLECTED IN THE T NUMBERS OF 1.5/2.0/1.5 FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC. THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME FRAME BEFORE VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO JUST MAKE IT TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN 24 HOURS AND BEGIN WEAKENING AT THE 48 HOUR FORECAST TIME. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION REMAINS THE SAME. A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT A LITTLE SLOWER AND JUST TO THE LEFT. IT IS ALSO SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 13.1N 133.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 13.8N 134.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 14.7N 136.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 15.4N 138.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 16.0N 140.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 17.0N 146.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 07/0600Z 17.5N 151.5W 25 KT 120HR VT 08/0600Z 18.0N 156.0W 20 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 03-Aug-2004 08:32:38 UTC