ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON AUG 02 2004 THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 30 KT WITH SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND T NUMBERS OF 2.0/2.0/1.5 FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC. THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE MODELS CALL FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE STRONG AFTER 72 HOURS AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY A WEAKENING TREND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THAT TIME. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD AND ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALONG THE SAME TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER AFTER 48 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 12.8N 132.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 13.4N 133.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 14.6N 135.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 15.9N 137.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 16.5N 140.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 17.0N 144.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 07/0000Z 17.0N 150.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 08/0000Z 18.0N 156.0W 25 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 03-Aug-2004 02:22:34 UTC