ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON AUG 02 2004 CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS CLASSIFICATIONS SO THE CYCLONE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KTS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS REMAINED THE SAME OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SLOW STRENGTHENING IS PROBABLE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM SSTS. THE GFDL IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE AROUND 36-48 HRS THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND INTO COOLER WATERS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE STORM TRACK IS GENERALLY WESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND IT GENERALLY AGREES WITH CONU AND GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER SISKO/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 12.8N 131.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 13.5N 132.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 14.3N 134.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 15.2N 136.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 15.9N 138.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 16.5N 142.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 17.0N 146.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 17.0N 150.0W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 02-Aug-2004 20:52:37 UTC