ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT JUL 31 2004 DARBY CONTINUES AS A WEAKENING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUD THAT IS CURRENTLY VOID OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT... WITH ALL THE USUAL UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT HOW FAST THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM USUALLY WEAKENS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/13. DARBY IS SOUTH OF A STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF ITS LIFE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. WHILE DARBY SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATER FROM HERE ON... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR DEVELOPING OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING... WITH DARBY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR AND AN EASTERLY WAVE AFTER 72 HR. DARBY MAY DISSIPATE EVEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THAT IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON DARBY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 18.9N 139.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 18.9N 141.7W 25 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 18.9N 145.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 02/0600Z 19.0N 148.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 02/1800Z 19.0N 151.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 03/1800Z 19.0N 156.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Jul-2004 20:42:31 UTC