ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT JUL 31 2004 DARBY IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ONE SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE FROM ALL AGENCIES BUT A RECENT QUIKSCAT SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW 35 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. ALL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOL SSTS. THE SSTS WARM UP APPROACHING HAWAII...SO THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A REMNANT LOW OUT TO 120 HOURS...BUT THE REMNANT MAY NOT LAST THAT LONG. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/14. WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK AND A SMALL NORTHWARD COMPONENT AFTER 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONCENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0900Z 19.0N 136.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 31/1800Z 19.2N 138.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 19.0N 142.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 18.9N 145.1W 25 KT 48HR VT 02/0600Z 19.2N 148.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 03/0600Z 19.8N 152.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/0600Z 20.5N 156.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 05/0600Z 22.5N 159.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Jul-2004 08:32:29 UTC