Hurricane DARBY

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HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUL 29 2004
 
AFTER A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION...DARBY'S CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THE EYE IS BECOMING LESS
DISTINCT AND THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS.
COOL WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD AFFECT THE HURRICANE
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WEAKENING AT A FASTER PACE SHOULD BEGIN SOON.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
 
DARBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IS
GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...SOME MODELS CARRY DARBY
WESTWARD AND OTHERS NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST WHEN
DARBY BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE IN 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 17.6N 128.0W   100 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 18.2N 129.8W    85 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 18.8N 132.2W    70 KT
 36HR VT     31/0000Z 19.5N 134.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     31/1200Z 19.5N 137.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 20.0N 142.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 20.5N 146.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     03/1200Z 20.5N 152.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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