ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED JUL 28 2004 DARBY RETAINS A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 5.0...OR 90 KT. DARBY WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...SO A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DECAY. THE SHIPS MODEL TAKES DARBY DOWN FAST...DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN 96 HOURS AFTER IT PASSES OVER 23-24C WATER. THE GFDL HAS A SLOWER DECAY... EVEN SHOWING A BIT OF A RECOVERY AT 5 DAYS AS SSTS SLOWLY INCREASE AGAIN. IF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE RIGHT...HOWEVER...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVAIL BY THEN AND PRECLUDE ANY RESTRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A DECAY RATE THAT ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LARGELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS TRACK. SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD KEEP THE PRESENT MOTION...295/12...STEADY UNTIL DARBY WEAKENS AND TURNS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT WITH A SHALLOW LAYER FLOW. THE GFS...WHICH INITIALIZES DARBY AS A 1010 MB LOW AND WEAKENS IT QUICKLY...REMAINS THE OUTLIER ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NOGAPS ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS DARBY SEEMINGLY TOO STRONG AND TAKES IT NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND MEDIUM BAM. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 16.6N 125.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 17.3N 127.5W 90 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 18.0N 129.6W 80 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 18.6N 131.8W 70 KT 48HR VT 31/0000Z 19.0N 134.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 01/0000Z 19.5N 139.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 02/0000Z 20.0N 144.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 03/0000Z 20.0N 149.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 29-Jul-2004 02:42:28 UTC