Tropical Storm DARBY

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TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 2004
 
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BANDING TYPE EYE IS TRYING TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO CALL
THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT 3.5 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON THE FORMATION OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE...
WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WARM
WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF DARBY BECOMING A HURRICANE AND THEN
STRENGTHENING FURTHER ARE HIGH.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND
GFDL MODELS.

DARBY IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS TO ITS WEST.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WOULD ALLOW DARBY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH MAINTAINS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS.
IF DARBY WEAKENS MORE THAN INDICATED DUE TO COOL WATERS...THE
CYCLONE COULD MOVE MORE TO WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 13.8N 119.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 14.5N 121.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 15.0N 124.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 15.5N 126.0W    80 KT
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 16.0N 128.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N 132.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     31/1800Z 18.0N 136.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     01/1800Z 19.0N 141.0W    55 KT
 
 
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