ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU JUL 22 2004 CELIA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. AS NOTED EARLIER...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY HOW FAST THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING. HOWEVER...EARLIER WIND IMAGERY FROM SSM/I AND TRMM INDICATES THAT WHATEVER TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN ARE CONFINED TO THE REMAINING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED ON THE SOUTH SIDE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MICROWAVE DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8. CELIA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST TRACK GUDIANCE... INCLUDING THE BAMS...CALLS FOR A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THIS MAY BE ACADEMIC...AS SUCH A TRACK WOULD LEAD TO AN EVEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DEMISE OVER COOLER WATER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. CELIA MAY BE FEELING THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST TO THE NORTH...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SEEMS TO BE CAUSING SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER THE CYCLONE CENTER. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES IN 48-72 HR. SEVERAL MODELS KEEP CELIA ALIVE UNTIL 120 HR...WHICH DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 16.3N 124.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 16.4N 125.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 16.5N 127.3W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 24/1200Z 16.5N 129.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 25/0000Z 16.5N 131.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Jul-2004 02:42:24 UTC