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Hurricane CELIA (Text)

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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUL 21 2004

MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AN AQUA OVERPASS AT 21/2115Z SHOWED CELIA HAS
A SMALL EYE WITH AN 80 TO 90 PERCENT CLOSED EYEWALL...AND THERE ARE
HINTS OF AN EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 65 KT...AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW NEAR 65 KT.  BASED ON THIS...CELIA IS
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE...THE FIRST OF THE 2004 EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER
OVER THE PAST FEW HR.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST THINKING.  CELIA REMAINS SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 125W LONGITUDE.  THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD PAST THE WEAKNESS WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  TPC TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A
TYPICAL SPREAD BETWEEN WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTIONS...
WITH SOME SPREAD IN SPEED AS WELL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL
AND GFDN.

CELIA CURRENTLY SHOWS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...
EXCEPT TO THE NORTH WHERE IT IS POOR.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST
THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE
CONTROLLED MAINLY BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES JUST TO THE NORTH.  THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR CELIA
TO MOVE ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE SST ISOTHERMS...REACHING 24C
TEMPERATURES IN 3-4 DAYS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING
STARTING AFTER ABOUT 12-24 HR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SLOWER TO DISSIPATE THE STORM THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED ON
THE FORECAST MOTION AND THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 16.3N 121.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 122.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 16.8N 124.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 17.1N 125.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 17.3N 127.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N 131.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N 135.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     27/0000Z 17.5N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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