ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED JUL 21 2004 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55...55...AND 50 KT FROM TAFB... SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS GOOD BANDING ABOUT A WELL-DEFINED IR WARM SPOT THAT IS ALSO APPARENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. STILL...THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0230Z DIDN'T SHOW ANYTHING ABOVE ABOUT 40 KT. THIS MOST LIKELY MEANS THAT EITHER CELIA IS WEAKER THAN INDICATED BY DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...PERHAPS BECAUSE OF LOW LEVEL STABILITY INHIBITING VERTICAL TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE...OR THE WIND MAXIMUM IS TOO SMALL TO BE RESOLVED BY THE SCATTEROMETER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BUT IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST SEVERAL ADVISORIES... IN CALLING FOR A LITTLE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE COOLER WATERS ARE REACHED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 286/6. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. CELIA REMAINS SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 125W LONGITUDE AND THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE RATHER SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CELIA MOVES PAST THIS WEAKNESS WHILE IT WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE WITH A SHALLOWER LAYER MEAN FLOW. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 16.2N 120.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 16.4N 121.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 16.8N 122.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 17.2N 124.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 18.0N 129.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 18.0N 133.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 26/1200Z 18.0N 136.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Jul-2004 14:42:23 UTC