Tropical Storm CELIA

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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUL 21 2004
...CORRECTED TO ADD THE WORD LOW IN FIFTH SENTENCE BELOW...
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT CELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY. 
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 45 KT.  APPARENTLY
THE STORM IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL FOR
INTENSITY CHANGE.  WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR
STRENGTHENING...BUT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IMPEDING OUTFLOW IN THAT DIRECTION. 
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  AS HAS
BEEN NOTED EARLIER...STABLE AIR IN THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE IMPEDING
INTENSIFICATION.  THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS OUTPUT WHICH
SHOWS NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE FROM THE BUOYANCY
TERM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALLOWS FOR
A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING BEFORE COOLER WATERS BEGIN TO HAVE AN
INFLUENCE.  IF CELIA MOVES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE TO THE NORTH THAN
ANTICIPATED...IT WOULD LIKELY DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN INDICATED
HERE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 290/7.  THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 125W LONGITUDE AND THIS IS
LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE RATHER SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. 
THE GFS INITIALIZES CELIA AS AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK PERTURBATION
AND CONSEQUENTLY LOSES IT WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. 
THIS IS A TAD SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE PERIOD.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 16.2N 119.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 16.7N 120.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 17.1N 122.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 17.5N 124.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 17.8N 125.9W    40 KT
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N 129.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 133.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N 136.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 
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