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Tropical Storm CELIA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUL 20 2004

CELIA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC TIME.  HENCE...THE WIND SPEED
IS HELD AT 50 KT.  CELIA STILL HAS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRENGTHENING.  UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL STORM...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN IN A FAIRLY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
STABLE AIR IN THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN INHIBITING
FACTOR.  THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND GFDN GUIDANCE STRENGTHEN THE STORM
INTO A HURRICANE WHEREAS THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
OR WEAKENING.  SINCE CELIA IS A RATHER SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...
THIS IS A CASE WHERE THE GLOBAL MODELS PROBABLY HAVE GREATER THAN
NORMAL DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE CIRCULATION AND PREDICTING
INTENSITY TRENDS.   BY 48 HOURS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CROSSING THE 26 DEG C SST ISOTHERM...SO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING
BEGINNING AROUND THAT TIME.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/7.  THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  CELIA SHOULD
REMAIN EMBEDDED IN EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
AN UPDATE OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 15.3N 117.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 15.6N 118.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 16.1N 120.4W    60 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 122.2W    60 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 16.9N 124.1W    55 KT
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 128.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N 131.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 135.0W    35 KT
 
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