ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON JUL 19 2004 VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS CONFIRMED THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T3.0...AND THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS BASIS. ALTHOUGH CELIA REMAINS A RATHER SMALL CYCLONE...IT IS DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING CELIA TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE STABLE AIR MASS INTO WHICH CELIA IS HEADED...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE. SSTS WILL BE DECREASING UNDER THE CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS AND SO A SLOW DECAY IS INDICATED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MOTION HAS APPEARED TO SLOW SOMEWHAT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/8. CELIA IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE...BUT ENOUGH RIDGING IS FORECAST BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TO TAKE THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFNI...MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 15.0N 116.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 15.8N 119.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 16.2N 121.7W 55 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 16.5N 123.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 17.0N 127.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 136.0W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 19-Jul-2004 20:42:23 UTC