Tropical Storm CELIA

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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 19 2004
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS CONFIRMED THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T3.0...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS BASIS.  ALTHOUGH CELIA REMAINS
A RATHER SMALL CYCLONE...IT IS DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN
ALL QUADRANTS.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING CELIA TO
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE STABLE AIR MASS INTO WHICH CELIA IS
HEADED...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE.  SSTS WILL BE DECREASING UNDER THE CYCLONE AFTER 48
HOURS AND SO A SLOW DECAY IS INDICATED LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE MOTION HAS APPEARED TO SLOW SOMEWHAT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 280/8.  CELIA IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS
IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE...BUT ENOUGH RIDGING IS FORECAST BY
ALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TO TAKE THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFNI...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE NORTH AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL
ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 15.0N 116.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W    50 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 15.8N 119.8W    55 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 16.2N 121.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 123.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 127.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     24/1800Z 17.5N 136.0W    40 KT
 
 
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