| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Tropical Depression FOUR-E (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUL 18 2004

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.  THE UPGRADE IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 KTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE SYSTEM HAS A GOOD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.  THE SATELLITE METEOROLOGISTS ALSO NOTED THE STRONG
OUTFLOW TOWARD THE NORTH.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS HIGH.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/09.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE MOVES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD...WHILE THE STATISTICAL AND
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFS SOLUTION.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A LOW SHEER ENVIRONMENT AND IS OVER
WARM SSTS.  SHIPS GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM TO A 60 KT TROPICAL
STORM IN TWO TO THREE DAYS.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE PHOTOS SHOW
STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THIS AIR WILL
BE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.  THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS. 
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 14.4N 113.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 14.5N 115.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 14.6N 117.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 14.7N 119.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 14.8N 121.9W    50 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 15.0N 127.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 15.1N 132.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     24/0000Z 15.2N 136.9W    50 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN