ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED JUL 14 2004 BLAS IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN OVER 24C WATER AND THERE IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION LEFT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KT FROM THE THREE AGENCIES. SHIP ELYS4 AT 06Z REPORTED 35 KT ABOUT 100 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 02Z SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KT. A PAIR OF SHIP REPORTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE LARGE-SCALE BAND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH STEADY WEAKENING IS CALLED FOR AS BLAS MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...THE LARGE CIRCULATION WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE. THE FORWARD SPEED OF BLAS APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED SOMEWHAT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/16. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH ADDITIONAL SLOWING OF THE STEERING WINDS AS BLAS NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. A MORE WESTWARD STEERING BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. EVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING...THE OUTER BANDS OF BLAS COULD STILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 21.9N 115.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 22.9N 117.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 23.9N 119.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 15/1800Z 24.4N 121.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 16/0600Z 25.0N 123.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 17/0600Z 25.0N 126.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 18/0600Z 25.0N 129.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 14-Jul-2004 08:32:20 UTC